Negative Price Reaction to Follow KB Homes Earnings?

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KB Homes (KBH) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, September 24th. The whisper number is $0.25, three cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate and showing confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.22 to a high of $0.30. KB Homes has a 63% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 29 of the 46 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

– Beat whisper: 29 qtrs
– Met whisper: 0 qtrs
– Missed whisper: 17 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock’s price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:

KBH915A

The strongest price movement of -1.4% comes within ten trading days when the company reports that beat the whisper number, and -6.3% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move through thirty trading days is ‘negative’ (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:

KBH915B

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in two of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings tewlve cents short of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 2.3% loss in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings two cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 10.4% gain in five trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) a ‘negative’ price reactor when the company reports earnings.

WhisperNumber provides detailed earnings analysis and earnings trade alerts. Learn more here.

[Image Courtesy of KB Homes]

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