Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is having yet another pretty good morning in the market today. Recently, excitement surrounding the potential of an acquisition has really picked up the pace of the stock. Not to mention that, even without an acquisition, this company could become overwhelmingly valuable. While the company is working on various product candidates, my focus when following NVAX has been on NanoFlu, the company’s vaccine for nanoparticle influenza, also known as the flu. Today, we’ll talk about the vaccine, the potential value it could drive for the company, and what we’ll be watching for ahead.
NVAX And NanoFlu – The Value Could Be Tremendous
For those of you who haven’t been following Novavax, the company is a biotech company that is working on bringing various vaccines to market. While the pipeline is impressive no matter which angle you look at it from, the true value of the company starts to emerge when you take a look at NanoFlu. In my opinion, this flu vaccine could be the goose that lays the golden eggs for the company.
The reality is that, at the moment, flu vaccines that are currently approved in the United States and abroad simply don’t have the efficacy that they used to. Unfortunately, the flu seems to be evolving to be resistant to the vaccines that we take, rendering the vaccines ineffective. Nonetheless, the NVAX NanoFlu vaccine is proving to be a promising way to combat the flu.
Soon, the company will be reporting further data surrounding the vaccine. However, the data thus far suggests that NanoFlu by NVAX is highly effective, outpacing other options. While data is still in the very early stages, what has been released thus far suggests that this vaccine may eventually become the leading option for those looking to avoid the flu.
The Potential Value Of NanoFlu
At the moment, more than 140 million flu vaccine doses are sold each year in the United States alone. At the average price of $17 per vaccine, that works out to be a massive number. On a rough estimate, this means that the total price paid for flu vaccines in the United States comes to well over $2 billion per year.
Now, there’s no doubt that even upon approval, NVAX isn’t going to take the entire market. However, considering the efficacy of the NanoFlu vaccine, at least from the data that we have to date, this vaccine is likely going to be a best-in-class option. Considering this, saying that, upon approval, the company’s vaccine is likely to account for 10% of market share in the flu vaccine space would be overwhelmingly modest. Nonetheless, at this modest figure, Novavax had the potential to drive in more than $200 million per year from NanoFlu. Forgetting about modesty, that number could be much, much higher.
Of course, this is why many believe that the company will soon be acquired. After all, big companies like GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi are likely to take a big hit on their vaccine sales if NanoFlu is indeed approved. So, it makes sense that an acquisition could happen. However, even without an acquisition, the potential value of this vaccine could be tremendous!
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What We’ll Be Watching For Ahead
Moving forward, the CNA Finance team will continue to keep a close eye on NVAX. In particular, we’re interested in watching the ongoing work surrounding NanoFlu and the rest of the company’s pipeline. We’ll also be keeping our eyes peeled for an offer from GSK or SNY to acquire the company or the NanoFlu asset. Nonetheless, we’ll continue to follow the story closely and bring the news to you as it breaks!
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