INTO THE TRADING WEEK, 20.04.15
via < PREMIUM> www.YourPersonalTrader.com
As market trading dust settled on the week, a lot had happened, but at the end nothing new materialized. The whipsaw continues within the S&P trading range after another rejection near the top of the range. A dip on Monday, a dip on Friday and a 2 day ‘Incinerator Rally’ on Oil links in between. The framework expressed into last week played out as seen below, U.S couldn’t ride the coattails of Europe/Asia as one or both would eventually tire leaving U.S stocks with nothing to go on. There is no change to the outlook this week, you can re-read the last 5 daily journals or just go by a few of the items below.
“Simply, the Black Sheep (U.S equities) stopped sitting and idling in jealousy and caught a tailwind finally off the Asian/European markets with the help of “bustling M&A activity” to close off the week. Other then ‘drafting’ behind Global Markets and a flurry of M&A activity this market has little reason to break out of the 2000-2100 range with vigor (to SPX 2150) unless this Global wave continues and/or we see a break of the QNET 2014 top. To be honest, don’t think it happens just yet unless a massive pile on into stocks comes beginning of the week.. In all, prefer to see a market dip from here or from a little higher back to mid range (2050)…”
“Weekend crowd anticipation for strong markets out of the gate flopped today. Giddiness consisting of all time highs in MSCI All Countries Index, SPX poking its head over 2100k after a strong close to the week, index charts near highs and anticipation for Merger Monday ended in disappointment as a wave of fresh ‘chaser’ bids never materialized..
“Charts can show you one thing (ie: coiled, near highs), but individual trader/investor psych can express something completely different. Today, it showed its a little fatigued and probably feeling its not worth much more at 2100 SPX (18x) levels with the economy losing momentum(per Q1 data) and a USD dollar back at highs, possibly doing more damage going forward. Right now the market is fairly priced..”
Luckily for us at YPT, we can trade forward without worrying about China Securities regulation news, its weekend RRR cuts or what will eventually be an 11th hour Greek agreement, as earnings get in gear!. As noted in Friday’s ITTD, despite the outperformance of QNET-Shadowlist stocks in the previous session there was little in the way of stocks near highs. After Friday’s big dipper, maybe 10% of the single stocks remain over 9ema despite market still being near top of range. Not a very good sign to say the least as we love NCH’s, new closing highs to play. Luckily, the earnings deluge this week may possibly perk them back up quite quickly.
TUESDAY: UA CMG URI ILMN MANH
WEDNESDAY: NEU TYL FB
A.M Update: *RRR news is seemingly bolstering the ES_F. CHINA H-shares fell nearly 3% as sell the inevitable news seems to have taken hold here first, SCHOMP down a bit. Otherwise, ES_F riding a Europe coattail bounce. Big contract win for a YPT’s SHADOWLIST stock this morning. ALERT sent out to members.